Dark Clouds and Silver Linings

It's impossible to discuss current trends in poker without taking the global economic crisis into account. Gaming industry revenues are down almost everywhere. Consumer spending at resort destinations including Las Vegas, Atlantic City and elsewhere have declined precipitously. Nevertheless, overall revenue declines and looming fears of bankruptcy for some casino operators have broadened the prospects for poker at many venues.

Opportunities that simply didn't exist during booming economic times are now very much in play. Indeed, now might be the best of times for those vested in the poker industry, especially for activists who are flexible enough to take advantage of some drastic changes in the casino market and proponents who are best able to advance the alternatives that poker can provide. Let's define who we are talking about by 'those vested in the poker industry'.

I define this eclectic group as poker players, dealers, cardroom management, casino owners, and ancillary businesses such as media and the manufacturers of poker-related products. Benefiting most from inevitable changes should be players and dealers. Benefiting somewhat less will be management, ownership, and related businesses. But almost everyone in the poker industry has an opportunity to gain something from this transition. What follows is a list of changes I foresee happening in the next year to 18 months.

1 - More Tournaments

Faced with empty hotel rooms and declining revenues in other departments, many American casinos are expanding their poker tournament schedules. Venues that previously offered perhaps only one or two major tournaments per year are now offering more and lengthier multi-day tournaments. The reasoning is simple: if a casino can't attract conventional customers, offering a poker tournament virtually guarantees gamblers will fill the rooms, boost vendor traffic and play casino games. Tournament entry fees and the increased drop from live-game traffic also contributes to a healthier bottom line.

2 - More Lower-Stakes Poker Games

Many regular higher-stakes poker games are losing players. Contributors simply do not have as much disposable income to lose playing poker. As a result, some games are consolidating and the stakes are decreasing. Many poker rooms, even those most famous for hosting big games, are now overrun with small-stakes action, such as $4/$8 limit and $1/$2 and $2/$5 no-limit games.

3 - More Poker Players

Aside from the current economic crisis, poker's primary demographics are quite encouraging. Millions of potential poker devotees turn 21 every year. This number of young people is far greater than the number of existing players who pass away. Most budding poker players now in their teens have been watching poker on television for years. Many of them will flood into poker rooms when they turn legal age. Furthermore, poker rooms are filling up with players now playing more hours. Many of these players have taken early retirements, lost their jobs or are at a career impasse. Less regular work and more free time means more poker players, at least in the short term.

4 - Increased Chances of Repealing the UIGEA

Recent political changes have made pro-online gambling initiatives in the United States, especially online poker's legalisation, a real possibility. Congressman Barney Frank is introducing legislation to repeal the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA) during this congressional session. Many experts predict fully fledged legalisation of online poker is still three to five years away. But it's coming. Bet on it.

5 - Intrastate Online Poker

With the American online poker market now estimated to be about 10 million players, lawmakers in some states are now considering legalising the game within their own borders. Presumably, since federal law prohibits gambling taking place across state lines, intrastate poker would be legal - gambling has long been considered a state issue. One such bill has already been introduced in California. At least two other states are also considering this possibility. My prediction would be that if California legalises intrastate online poker, at least a dozen more states will soon follow.

6 - More Opportunities for Poker Media

We are in the midst of a major adjustment period as media are forced to adjust to changes within the marketplace. Most alarming of these changes are declining revenues from advertising. Some print magazines and websites will not survive this downswing. However, as some media fold or consolidate, that will make those media who survive more attractive targets for new advertising dollars. And when spending on promotion returns, those who survived the crisis and who provided proven beneficial services will be better positioned to profit even more as a result of their established relationships.

7 - Looking to the future

Just as casinos are spending less money on marketing and advertising, they are also buying less poker-related products and services. Renovations of some poker facilities have either been delayed or cancelled. However, the positive consequence of this downtime is that when things improve casinos will be forced to make up for lost time by ordering more products and services. Poker rooms needing renovation will be forced to update their facilities at some point or lose business to those who do. In a sense, spending on casino and cardroom improvements can never really be cancelled. It can only be postponed.

Conclusion

There is no question about it - times are tough. They might even get worse. But those who are prepared for this crisis and who make adjustments now will not only increase their chances of survival, they will also be in a better position to prosper when the market returns to normal. This goes for everyone. As the philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche once said, 'that which does not kill us, makes us stronger.'